Sunflower oil: price and forecasts for the second half of 2024

In the second half of 2024, unrefined sunflower oil may experience several key trends that will affect its prices and availability. Unrefined sunflower oil is produced from the seeds of the common sunflower. The production process for this oil involves cold-pressing the sunflower seeds, which preserves most of the natural nutrients as well as the characteristic flavor and aroma.

Unrefined sunflower oil is widely used both in cooking and in cosmetics and health. In culinary, it is valued for its delicate flavor, which goes perfectly with salads, sauces and as an addition to prepared foods. In cosmetics, it is used to moisturize skin and hair, thanks to its high content of vitamin E and fatty acids, which nourish and protect against dryness. In the diet, the oil supports heart health, thanks to the presence of polyunsaturated fatty acids, and also acts as a powerful antioxidant, protecting cells from oxidative stress.

MBF Group SA offers high-quality vegetable oils, including refined and unrefined rapeseed oil and refined and unrefined sunflower oil. The oils come from, among others. Poland, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The company has an extensive network of contacts and works with experienced refiners and suppliers.

Anticipated market trends

Availability of raw material

The global sunflower seed harvest in 2024 is forecast to be stable, which may favor a balance between supply and demand in the sunflower oil market. Countries such as Ukraine, which is one of the world’s major sunflower producers, will be key to global supply. A stabilization or increase in production in this region could positively affect the availability of the feedstock, which in turn could lead to keeping prices at levels acceptable to consumers and the industry.

In the case of Ukraine, a stable political and economic situation will be key to realizing these forecasts, as past conflicts and instability have had a negative impact on agricultural production. In addition, favorable climatic conditions and investments in modern crop technologies may also help boost crop yields. Other producer countries, such as Russia, Argentina and India, are also expected to play an important role in ensuring global supply, which could reduce the risk of excessive price fluctuations in the event of production problems in one of these regions. All in all, the projected stability in global yields should be conducive to keeping the sunflower oil market in balance in 2024.

Prices and their volatility

Sunflower oil prices may fluctuate depending on general vegetable oil market conditions and the volatility of prices for other oils, such as canola oil. An increase in demand for vegetable oils in various industries, including food and biofuel, could lead to higher prices, especially if there are production constraints. Sunflower oil prices may also be sensitive to unexpected changes in global trade, such as the introduction of new tariffs, sanctions or other trade barriers that could disrupt the flow of raw materials and finished products. High price volatility can also result from trade policy uncertainty, such as decisions on vegetable oil exports or imports in key regions.

Macroeconomic factors

Sunflower oil prices in 2024 will largely depend on global macroeconomic factors that can affect commodity markets. One key element is currency fluctuations, which can directly affect oil prices in international markets. Fluctuations in the value of currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, have a significant impact on global trade, as most transactions in the commodities market are conducted in this currency. A strengthening dollar can lead to an increase in sunflower oil prices in countries that import the commodity, especially if their currencies weaken. On the other hand, a weakening dollar could ease price pressures in these regions. Another important factor is the overall global economic situation. Global economic downturns, such as those resulting from financial crises, pandemics or armed conflicts, could affect demand for vegetable oils, including sunflower oil.

During a recession, consumers and industry may reduce spending, which in turn can reduce demand and lead to a drop in prices. However, in reverse situations, when economies are expanding, increased demand for food and industrial products, in which vegetable oils are an important ingredient, can lead to higher prices. Equally important is the impact of monetary and fiscal policy, especially in countries that are large producers or consumers of sunflower oil. Decisions to raise interest rates, introduce or eliminate tariffs, agricultural subsidies or international trade regulations can significantly affect production and transportation costs, and thus final oil prices.

Key factors affecting supply

  1. Production in Ukraine: As a major producer of sunflower oil, Ukraine is forecasting an increase in production for the 2023/2024 season. According to information from Ukroliyaprom, production is expected to be higher than before the war, which could significantly affect global supply, provided that the seeds are maximally processed domestically.
  2. Weather conditions: Global weather conditions will be key to the harvest. If conditions are favorable, supply can be expected to stabilize or increase. However, climate change and extreme weather events may introduce uncertainty and affect yields in other key regions.
  3. Vegetable Oil Demand: An increase in demand for sunflower oil, both in the food and industrial sectors, could affect supply dynamics. If demand grows, producers may be forced to increase production, which could lead to further increases in supply.
  4. Prices of other vegetable oils: Sunflower oil prices are also linked to the prices of other oils, such as rapeseed oil and palm oil. An increase in the prices of these oils may prompt producers to increase production of sunflower oil to meet demand and maximize profits.

In conclusion, the supply of sunflower oil on the world market in the second half of 2024 will depend on the stabilization of production in Ukraine, weather conditions and global demand for vegetable oils. Increased production in key regions may contribute to an increase in supply, which will affect the price and availability of oil on international markets. In the Asian sunflower oil market, several important price trends can be expected in the second half of 2024, which will be driven by global developments and local conditions.

Price trends (predictions and forecasts)

  1. Price stabilization: In a global context, sunflower oil prices may show a trend toward stability, with possible fluctuations depending on supply and demand. In particular, production stability in key regions, such as Ukraine, may help keep prices stable.
  2. Impact of competition with other oils: The sunflower oil market in Asia will also be subject to competition from other vegetable oils, such as palm oil and soybean oil. Increased production and exports of palm oil, which dominates the market, could affect sunflower oil prices, especially in countries such as India, which are large importers of
  3. Macroeconomic factors: Currency fluctuations and global economic conditions will have a significant impact on sunflower oil prices in Asia. Changes in trade policy and economic uncertainty may lead to price fluctuations, which will be important for importers and producers.
  4. Domestic Demand: Increased demand for sunflower oil in Asia, due to its use in cooking and industry, could affect prices. If demand increases, producers may be forced to increase prices, which could lead to further increases in the market.

In conclusion, the sunflower oil market in Asia in the second half of 2024 may be characterized by price stability, with potential fluctuations due to global competition, local demand and macroeconomic factors. An increase in demand and changes in the production of other vegetable oils may also affect pricing in the region.

Range of changes in sunflower oil prices

In the second half of 2024, unrefined sunflower oil prices may be characterized by stability, but with potential increases in the event of limited supply or increased demand. Forecasts suggest that prices could increase by a few percent, but the exact extent of changes will depend on a number of variables, including weather conditions and global trends in vegetable oil production.

In conclusion, the unrefined sunflower oil market in the second half of 2024 will be shaped by the balance between supply and demand, macroeconomic factors and changes in the production of other vegetable oils. In the second half of 2024, forecasts for sunflower oil production indicate stabilization, with potential growth in some regions, especially Ukraine.

Key oil production forecasts

  1. Ukraine: According to Ukroliyaprom forecasts, Ukraine’s sunflower oil production in the 2023/2024 season is expected to be higher than before the war, subject to maximum processing of the oilseed. Stabilizing the country’s production is crucial, as Ukraine is one of the world’s major sunflower oil producers.
  2. Global harvest: At the global level, sunflower seed production remains stable compared to the previous year. Increased production in the European Union and other countries may offset lower production in some regions, such as Ukraine and India.
  3. Expectations for the future: Growth in global oilseed production, including sunflower, may result from improved growing conditions in key regions. However, factors such as climate change, weather conditions and trade policies could affect final production results.

All in all, in the second half of 2024, sunflower oil production forecasts point to stabilization, with potential growth in some regions, especially Ukraine, where production could exceed pre-war levels, provided oilseeds are processed to the maximum.

Globally, sunflower seed production remains stable, with growth in the European Union and other countries likely to offset any declines in production in regions such as Ukraine and India. For the future, global oilseed production is projected to increase, but factors such as climate change, weather conditions and trade policies could affect final production results.