market forecasts – MBF Group

Refined rapeseed oil holds a leading position in the global edible oil market due to its numerous advantages, including its neutral taste, high content of unsaturated fatty acids, and wide culinary and industrial applications. It is preferred both in home cooking and in the food and biofuel industries. Below we will discuss in detail the key aspects of production, major producers and price forecasts for refined rapeseed oil for the second half of 2024.

Refined rapeseed oil is one of the most popular edible oils in the world, prized for its neutral taste, high content of healthy unsaturated fatty acids and versatile use in cooking. It is used for:

Frying: Canola oil has a high smoke point, reaching about 240°C. This makes it an ideal choice for high-temperature frying, while ensuring health safety by minimizing the risk of harmful compounds. It is therefore preferred both in households and in restaurants and other catering establishments, where temperature stability and quality of the final product are required.
Baking: The neutral taste of refined canola oil makes it an excellent ingredient for baking. It does not adversely affect the taste of food, which is especially important in baked goods, where we want to preserve the natural flavor of the ingredients. In addition, its fatty texture contributes to the retention of moisture in cakes and pastries, which is key to achieving the right texture and consistency.
Sauces and dressings: Canola oil emulsifies easily with other ingredients to create smooth and creamy sauces and dressings. Thanks to its neutral taste, it can be used as a base ingredient in a wide variety of recipes, while adding nutritional value and maintaining the high quality of the final product.
Margarines and vegetable fats: It is an essential ingredient in the production of margarines, bread greases and other vegetable fats. Thanks to its stability and versatile application, it is widely used in the food industry, where high-quality and long-lasting fats are needed.
Biofuels: Refined rapeseed oil can be processed into biodiesel, making it an important raw material in the production of alternative fuels for diesel engines. This functionality further increases its importance in the market, affecting the diversity of applications and the stability of demand for this agricultural product.

The production process for refined rapeseed oil involves several steps:

Pressing: rapeseed is pressed to obtain crude oil.
Refining: Crude oil is purified of impurities and undesirable substances using physical and chemical processes such as de-sliming, enzymatic deactivation, degumming, bleaching and deodorization.
Extrusion: the purified oil is subjected to a solvent evaporation process to remove residual volatiles.
Packaging: the finished oil is packed into bottles, cans or other packaging and distributed to consumers.

The largest producers of refined rapeseed oil on each continent are:

Europe

Germany is one of the largest producers of refined rapeseed oil in Europe, thanks to its large rapeseed acreage and developed processing industry.
Ukraine is one of the leading producers of rapeseed oil in Europe. The country has significantly increased its production capacity in recent years, becoming one of the world’s largest rapeseed oil exporters. Ukraine, thanks to its favorable climatic and soil conditions and developed agricultural technology, plays a key role in the European and global rapeseed oil market.
France is one of the largest producers of refined rapeseed oil in Europe. The country has extensive rapeseed acreage and an advanced processing industry.
Poland is also a significant producer of rapeseed oil in Europe. Rapeseed is one of Poland’s main oil crops, and the country has a well-developed vegetable oil processing sector.
The UK also plays an important role in the production of refined rapeseed oil. Cultivation of rapeseed is popular in many regions of the country, and British processing companies produce large quantities of rapeseed oil for the domestic market and for export.

Asia

China is the largest producer of refined rapeseed oil in Asia, due to its large cultivated areas and high domestic demand for vegetable oils.

North America

Canada, particularly the province of Saskatchewan, is the continent’s leading producer of canola oil. Canada is also one of the world’s largest exporters of the oil.

South America

In South America, Brazil is a major producer of canola oil, although canola oil production there is smaller compared to other regions.

Australia and Oceania

Australia is a major producer of rapeseed oil in the region, with large areas of rapeseed and a developed processing infrastructure.

Africa

Canola oil production in Africa is relatively small compared to other continents. There is no clearly dominant producer on the continent, but rapeseed cultivation and rapeseed oil production are gradually developing in some countries in northern and southern Africa.

Refined rapeseed oil price forecast for the second half of 2024

The forecast takes into account several key factors that could affect the stability and direction of prices for this commodity on the world market:

Raw material availability: Global rapeseed yields projected for 2024 are generally good. Abundant harvests in major producer countries such as the European Union (especially Poland, Germany, France), Canada (Manitoba, Saskatchewan), and China (Heilongjiang, Jilin) are likely to increase the supply of refined rapeseed oil. An increase in supply usually puts downward pressure on prices.
Demand for refined rapeseed oil: Stable demand for refined rapeseed oil in the food, industrial (e.g., margarine production, bakery lubricants) and biofuel sectors will be a key factor in stabilizing prices. Growing interest in alternative fuels such as biodiesel may further support demand for this vegetable oil.
Competition with other vegetable oils: Prices of other vegetable oils, such as soybean oil and palm oil, will have a significant impact on the price of refined rapeseed oil. The competitiveness of these products on the world market may affect the price elasticity of rapeseed oil, especially in the context of exchange and substitution between different types of vegetable oils by producers and consumers.
Macroeconomic factors: Currency fluctuations and the overall global economic situation will have a significant impact on refined rapeseed oil prices. Fluctuations in the value of currencies may introduce uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets, which could translate into fluctuations in rapeseed oil prices.

Taking into account the above factors, refined rapeseed oil prices for the second half of 2024 are forecast to follow a generally stable trend, with some possible fluctuations in the short term depending on the intensity of supply and demand and the volatility of macroeconomic conditions. Stable demand from various industry sectors and potentially good rapeseed harvests in major production markets may act as stabilizing factors, although the possibility of unforeseen changes in the global market that may affect the price of this commodity should be taken into account.

On the other hand, rapeseed oil prices in the second half of 2024 may increase slightly due to limited supply and rising consumption, but the increase will depend on many variables, including production of other vegetable oils and global weather conditions.

MBF Group SA is a proven and reliable importer of refined oils from Eastern European countries such as Belarus and Ukraine. The company offers high-quality oils, including rapeseed and sunflower, in both refined and unrefined versions. MBF Group SA boasts documented deliveries to entities in Poland, Germany, France and Slovakia.

Thanks to its extensive experience in purchasing in eastern markets, as well as flexible terms of cooperation and attractive prices, the company has won the trust of many customers. Deliveries are made by various modes of transportation, including tank cars, rail cars and ships, and settlements are made on favorable terms for customers.

As a valuable ingredient in the kitchen and food industry, rapeseed oil plays a key role in European markets, especially in Poland and throughout Europe. Looking at the market outlook in 2024, the analysis highlights not only the importance of production, exports and imports, but also the dynamics of competition and international dependence. Not without significance is the prevailing geopolitical situation and relations between Poland, the European Union, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia…

The same is true of unrefined oil, as it is widely used in the food industry for food production, in the pharmaceutical industry for cosmetics and dietary supplements, and as a raw material for biofuels, meeting a variety of health, nutritional and ecological needs. Its natural nutritional properties make it valued by manufacturers as an ingredient in high-quality products, while its lack of refining can affect the intensity of flavor and aroma, as well as its nutritional content.

Refined rapeseed oil

Europe, which is both a large importer and exporter, is showing stability in canola oil trade. Imports reach about 1 million tons per year, with Germany, the Netherlands and the UK as the main importers. Germany accounts for about 30% of imports, while France and Poland play significant roles as exporters, contributing more than 20% of exports. Europe as a whole exports about 5 million tons per year, maintaining its position as the world’s largest exporter of rapeseed oil.In Poland, the market picture is equally impressive. The country is not only the largest producer of rapeseed oil in Europe, but also the second largest in the world. Production in 2023 reached about 6 million tons, covering as much as 80% of domestic demand.

The rest is imported, mainly from Germany, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. Poland also exports extensively, producing about 4 million tons a year, making it the world’s market leader in rapeseed oil. Germany, the Netherlands and the UK are the main buyers of Polish rapeseed oil.

Analyzing these figures, we see that Poland and Europe maintain their dominant position in the global rapeseed oil market.

Poland particularly stands out as a manufacturing and export powerhouse, decisively shaping the global dynamics of the sector. The value of this raw material to the economy and the food supply chain is undeniable, and the stability and sustainability of this market remain key to its continued success and growth.The value of the rapeseed oil market in Europe and Poland is significant. It is estimated that the European market is worth about 10 billion euros a year, while the Polish market reaches about 10 billion zlotys a year. These figures reflect the importance of this raw material to the region’s economy, both nationally and internationally.

However, while the market volume is impressive, Poland faces the challenge of a trade deficit in canola oil. In 2023, the deficit reached about 2 billion zlotys. The deficit is expected to narrow in 2024, mainly due to a decline in imports from Ukraine. This change may affect Poland’s trade balance and contribute to a more balanced situation in the rapeseed oil market.

In terms of volume, the European rapeseed oil market reaches about 6 million tons per year, while the Polish market is estimated at about 7 million tons per year. These figures confirm Poland’s dominant position as a key producer and exporter of this raw material in the region.

In Poland, the value of the refined oil market is estimated at about 8 billion zlotys a year, confirming the importance of this raw material to the national economy. Poland leads in both production and consumption in Europe, producing about 80% of the refined oil consumed in the country. Despite this, the country imports about 20% of its demand mainly from Germany, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. Poland also exports refined oil, mainly to Germany, the Netherlands and the UK, confirming its position in the European market.
On a European scale, the value of the refined oil market reaches about 50 billion euros a year, with Europe being the world’s largest producer and consumer of this raw material. More than 70% of the refined oil consumed in Europe is domestically produced, and the rest is imported, mainly from Asia. Nevertheless, Europe is also an active exporter, especially to Asian countries.
Globally, the value of the world market for refined oil is about $200 billion a year, with Asia dominating as the world’s largest market for this commodity. China, India and Japan are major importers, while Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia are major exporters, underscoring the importance of the Asian region to global refined oil trade.

Rapeseed oil plays a key role in Poland’s agricultural and industrial sectors, being both an important feedstock for food and biofuel production. Poland, being the leader in rapeseed production in Europe and the second in the world, has a significant share of the global rapeseed oil market. However, the presence of various risk factors can affect the stability of this sector and requires constant monitoring and appropriate management. This article will look at the main aspects of production, threats and challenges facing the Polish canola oil market.

Poland is the leading producer of rapeseed in Europe and a global player in this field, generating about 10 million tons of it in 2023.
Rapeseed production is used to produce rapeseed oil, feed and biofuels, which is an important part of Poland’s agro-industrial sector.
The main threat to the Polish rapeseed oil market is the current war in Ukraine. Ukraine is an important importer of Polish rapeseed oil, and an escalation of the conflict could lead to a drop in demand and lower prices on the market.
An additional risk factor is the growing competition from other large rapeseed oil producers, such as Canada and China, which could negatively affect Polish producers through price pressure and competition for markets.

In the face of these challenges, the key task for Poland’s rapeseed oil sector is to monitor the market situation and take appropriate measures to minimize potential negative effects and ensure the stability of the sector in Poland. Through a balanced approach to production, technological innovation and the search for new markets, Polish manufacturers can counter threats and seize opportunities to develop this important segment of the economy.

Unrefined rapeseed oil

Technical rapeseed oil, which is an important raw material in the food and fuel industry, plays an important role in European markets, especially in Poland. The 2024 market analysis sheds light on the dynamics of production, trade and the challenges facing the sector.

European perspective:

Imports: Europe imports relatively small amounts of unrefined rapeseed oil, estimated at about 0.5 million tons per year. Germany, the Netherlands and France are the main importers, with Germany leading the way, accounting for about 30% of imports.
Exports: Europe exports about 2 million tons of unrefined rapeseed oil annually, mainly to Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea. Germany and France are the largest exporters, with Poland ranking third, exporting about 20% of its production.

A Polish Perspective:

Production: Poland is one of the main producers of unrefined rapeseed oil in Europe, producing about 1 million tons per year. This raw material is used both in the domestic food market and for biofuel production.
Imports: Poland imports relatively small amounts of unrefined rapeseed oil, mainly from Germany, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. However, a drop in imports from Ukraine could affect Poland’s trade balance.
Exports: Poland exports about 0.5 million tons of unrefined rapeseed oil annually, primarily to Asian countries. Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are the main buyers of Polish rapeseed oil.

Value, account and volume:

The value of the unrefined rapeseed oil market in Europe is estimated at about €2 billion a year, with the Polish market worth about PLN 2 billion a year.
Poland’s trade account for unrefined rapeseed oil is slightly negative, with a deficit of about PLN 0.1 billion in 2023. It is expected that a decline in imports from Ukraine could reduce the deficit in 2024.
The volume of the unrefined rapeseed oil market in Europe is estimated at about 3 million tons per year, with the Polish market at about 1.2 million tons per year.

The main threat to the Polish unrefined rapeseed oil market is the war in Ukraine, which could affect demand and prices. In addition, growing competition from other producers, such as Canada and China, poses an additional challenge for Polish producers.In summary, the unrefined rapeseed oil market in Poland and Europe is a dynamically developing sector, albeit a relatively small one.

Poland has a strong foundation as a producer and exporter of the commodity, but must confront the challenges posed by the situation in Ukraine and growing competition. The key to future growth will be to monitor changes in the market and take appropriate action to address threats and capitalize on growth opportunities in this segment of the economy.

Refined and unrefined rapeseed oil: analysis and summary

The market for rapeseed oil, both refined and unrefined, plays a key role in Poland and Europe, being an important component of the kitchen and food industry. Poland stands out as one of the largest producers and exporters of rapeseed oil, giving the region a prominent position in the global rapeseed market. The value of rapeseed oil markets in Poland and Europe is impressive, exceeding 8 billion zlotys and 10 billion euros a year, respectively, underscoring the importance of the sector to the economy.

Despite its dominant position, Poland faces challenges, such as the current war in Ukraine, which could affect market stability by reducing demand and prices. In addition, growing competition from other producers, especially from Canada and China, poses additional challenges for Poland’s rapeseed oil sector. The key to continued success will be conscious monitoring of market developments and appropriate management to address threats and seize opportunities for the development of this strategic segment of the economy.

Refined rapeseed oil: market and forecasts for the second half of 2024

The production process for refined rapeseed oil involves several steps:

The largest producers of refined rapeseed oil on each continent are:

Europe

Asia

North America

South America

Australia and Oceania

Africa

Refined rapeseed oil price forecast for the second half of 2024

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Poland and Europe: Rapeseed oil | Analysis and Market | Outlook

Refined rapeseed oil

Unrefined rapeseed oil

Refined and unrefined rapeseed oil: analysis and summary