MBF Group
For years, our company MBF Group SA has been active in the vegetable oil market, including refined and unrefined rapeseed oil, consistently building competence in the areas of trading, market analysis and price risk management. The experience of the extreme volatility of 2021-2023 has allowed the market, but also participants such as MBF Group SA, to enter the next phase of development – a more mature one, based on data and long-term strategies.
The year 2025 and the 2026 outlook signal a transition from chaotic fluctuations to an orderly equilibrium, albeit with higher price levels maintained. Canola oil remains one of the key feedstock assets for Europe, both in the food and biofuel segments. This makes this market important not only operationally, but also for investment. In recent years, vegetable oils have been operating in a new macroeconomic environment in which energy prices, climate policy and security of supply play as important a role as the classic supply and demand relationship.
After a period of extreme volatility, the market is gradually calming down, but is not returning to its former low price levels. Canola oil fits into this trend as a more expensive but more predictable raw material. For companies in the supply chain, this means long-term planning and management of the purchasing portfolio. In this context, professional trade and diversification of supply sources are growing in importance.
The global context of the vegetable oil market
Global industry reports, including analyses by OIL WORLD, the USDA and specialized trading companies, indicate a third consecutive season of relatively high oilseed supply. At the same time, demand from the food industry and biofuel sector remains strong and stable. In 2025, vegetable oil prices remained at high levels, although corrections were evident towards the end of the year – especially in the soybean oil segment. Canola and sunflower oil reacted more slowly, confirming their strategic role in the European market. So the market remains tight, but increasingly “readable” for participants.
Climate and environmental regulations are an important addition to the global picture. In the European Union, policies such as Fit for 55 and RED III favor locally produced oils, including rapeseed oil, at the expense of imported plant materials. Outside Europe, there is less propensity for sudden regulatory interventions, reducing the risk of price shocks. As a result, the global oil market is moving from a reactive phase to a more model-based supply and demand balance. For market participants, this means an increasing role for analytics and medium-term strategies.
Forecasts for early 2026 suggest the possibility of mild downward pressure on rapeseed and sunflower oil prices, provided good supply from the EU and the Black Sea region is maintained. At the same time, analysts stress that even in the adjustment scenario, prices will remain clearly above pre-2020 levels. This marks a permanent change in the benchmark for the entire vegetable oil market. Canola oil will remain a relatively expensive commodity, but a key one for Europe’s food and energy economy.
EU rapeseed – production and supply balance
According to current estimates, the European Commission forecasts that EU rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 marketing season will be around 18.5-18.8 million tons. This represents a year-on-year increase of nearly 13% after a weaker 2024/2025 season and a result clearly above the average of the last five years. This is a significant improvement for the European oil industry. At the same time, the EC notes that EU demand for rapeseed – estimated at around 25 million tons – still exceeds production. The balance of the market thus remains structurally tight.
Good rapeseed production is translating into increased availability of rapeseed oil, both refined and unrefined. The European Commission indicates that production of vegetable oils in the EU could increase by about 6% in 2025/26. This is accompanied by a decline in oil imports, including palm oil, which strengthens the position of rapeseed in Europe’s feedstock mix. This is a favorable environment for local compressor stations and refineries. For end users, this means greater stability of supply, although without the guarantee of significant price reductions.
Canola oil against sunflower and soybean oil
Against the background of other vegetable oils, rapeseed oil retains a specific position. Unlike soybean oil, which is heavily dependent on global biofuel policies – especially in the United States – rapeseed is more of a “European product.” Its price reacts primarily to the situation in the EU, energy costs and climate regulations. Sunflower oil, linked to the Black Sea region, remains more sensitive to geopolitical and logistical factors. In this arrangement, rapeseed acts as a stabilizer of the vegetable oil market in Europe.
Projections for 2026 indicate that the price relationship between rapeseed oil and sunflower oil may gradually equalize. At the same time, rapeseed is likely to maintain a premium over soybean oil due to consumer preferences and EU policy. For trading companies, this means the need to actively manage their product portfolios and supply routes. Contracting flexibility and the ability to respond quickly to market changes are becoming increasingly important. The market today rewards not only price, but also security and continuity of supply.
High but more predictable volatility
The current phase of the canola oil market is an example of “high but more predictable volatility.” Prices remain sensitive to weather, energy costs and regulation, but changes are less rapid than in previous years. For industrial customers, this means the ability to better plan purchases and production. For trading – the growing importance of futures contracts and flexible pricing formulas. This environment favors entities with extensive experience and logistical background.
The structure of contracts is also playing an increasingly important role: their length, the way prices are indexed, and how risks are shared between parties. Many buyers today prefer margin stability to short-term price bargains. This favors hybrid solutions that combine spot prices with elements of futures contracts. As a result, market volatility is becoming more “manageable,” although still high. Companies capable of balancing different sources and directions of supply are gaining an advantage.
From the point of view of investors and strategic partners, the rapeseed oil market is entering a phase of maturity in which stable fundamentals, rather than short-term price speculation, are crucial. Structural demand from the food and biofuel sectors, supported by EU policies, creates a predictable environment for long-term trade and capital decisions. At the same time, regulatory and cost barriers limit oversupply, promoting margin stabilization across the value chain. In practice, this means that rapeseed oil is increasingly seen as a defensive asset in the agricultural commodities segment.
In the coming period, the market will increasingly reward players capable of operating at scale, diversifying supply routes and actively managing price and contract risks. Models based solely on spot transactions are losing ground to long-term trading relationships. For investors, this means a natural selection of business models and a concentration of value in companies with analytical, logistical and financial backgrounds. In this arrangement, rapeseed oil becomes part of the EU’s broader raw material and energy security strategy.
MBF Group’s role and outlook for 2026
In this environment, MBF Group SA is building its position as a flexible broker and trading partner in the refined and unrefined rapeseed oil market. The company focuses on diversification of supply sources, security of transactions and matching commercial terms to the real needs of customers. With continued high but more predictable volatility, the ability to react quickly to market changes becomes crucial. This is where experience and scale are critical.
Looking ahead to 2026, rapeseed oil will remain one of the pillars of the European vegetable oil market, supported by both stable structural demand and long-term EU policy directions. Good supply improves the availability of raw material, but a persistent deficit relative to demand will continue to support relatively high price levels and predictable trading conditions. In such an environment, the importance of scale of operations, the ability to diversify supply and actively manage price risk is growing. MBF Group SA, as a public company operating in this segment, has consistently developed a business model based on flexible trading, market analysis and transaction security. The company invites partners and investors interested in the long-term potential of the rapeseed oil market to contact it.
