The market for refined oils, such as sunflower, rapeseed and soybean oil, plays a key role in the global food industry and biofuel sector. Its dynamics and structure are constantly changing, influenced by both macroeconomic factors and local market conditions. In 2025, the industry will continue to face challenges from the geopolitical situation, weather conditions, trade policies and changing consumer preferences.
MBF Group SA, as a trusted supplier of refined and unrefined vegetable oils, plays an important role in the supply chain of this raw material. The company imports high-quality vegetable oils from Eastern Europe and Asia, including Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, providing its contractors with stability of supply and competitive business terms. In the face of global market changes, MBF Group SA is adjusting its operational strategy, ensuring reliability and transparency in transactions.
In particular, the war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the global vegetable oil market, disrupting supply chains and increasing commodity prices. In addition, climate change and developments in agricultural technology may redefine production capacity and affect the supply of oils internationally. In turn, the regulatory and trade policies of individual countries will determine the competitiveness of various oils in the global market.
- Geopolitical situation
1.1. War in Ukraine
As one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, Ukraine is crucial to the global vegetable oil market. The outbreak of war in 2022 has caused major disruptions in supply chains, and the embargo on Russian products has further affected the supply of raw materials. Although Ukraine is gradually rebuilding its export capacity, further developments in the conflict could continue to destabilize the market, leading to price uncertainty and the need for importers to seek alternative sources of supply.
1.2. Commercial tensions
Global trade in vegetable oils is influenced by political tensions between the world’s largest economies. For example:
- U.S.-China: Earlier tariffs imposed by China on U.S. soybean oil have affected global trade flows. In 2025, new regulations could again affect prices and availability of the raw material.
- EU – Indonesia / Malaysia: Disputes over environmental standards and sustainable palm oil production could lead to import restrictions, boosting demand for rapeseed and sunflower oils in Europe.
1.3. Sanctions
Economic sanctions imposed on Russia have limited its ability to export oil crops and their products, triggering changes in trade directions. In addition, possible restrictions on other agricultural commodity exporting countries (e.g., Argentina, a major soybean oil producer) could significantly affect the stability of global supplies.
- Weather conditions
2.1. Climate change
Global warming and extreme weather events are increasingly affecting agriculture. High temperatures, unpredictable precipitation and an increase in the frequency of natural disasters (e.g., droughts in Argentina, floods in Europe) have direct consequences for oil crop yields, causing fluctuations in supply and prices.
2.2. El Niño and La Niña
The El Niño/La Niña cycle, affecting the global climate, plays an important role in vegetable oil production:
- El Niño (warming Pacific waters) could trigger droughts in South America, reducing soybean and canola yields in Argentina and Brazil.
- La Niña (cooling of Pacific waters) may increase rainfall in Southeast Asia, improving conditions for palm oil production, but causing unfavorable conditions for rapeseed crops in Europe.
2.3. Local weather conditions
In addition to global trends, local weather factors also have a significant impact on the market. In Europe, for example, prolonged droughts can limit rapeseed production, while heavy rainfall during the harvest season can degrade the quality of sunflower oil.
- Demand and supply
3.1. Changes in consumer preferences
Growing health awareness and the popularity of plant-based diets are driving demand for oils high in unsaturated fatty acids, such as canola oil and sunflower oil. At the same time, consumers are increasingly opting for products labeled “organic” or “non-GMO,” forcing manufacturers to adjust their offerings.
3.2. Economic development
Population growth and economic development in Asia and Africa are generating increasing demand for vegetable oils. In developing countries, soybean oil and palm oil are the primary sources of dietary fat, resulting in increased imports.
3.3. Crop area and yields
Farmers’ crop selection decisions depend on market prices and subsidy policies. In 2025, the profitability of oilseed crops compared to cereals, as well as EU regulations on organic farming and CO₂ reduction, will be a factor.
3.4. Production technology
Innovations such as precision farming, the use of artificial intelligence in yield forecasting and modern oil extraction techniques can improve production efficiency and reduce costs.
- Trade policy
4.1. Customs duties and taxes
Customs regulations play a key role in the competitiveness of different types of oil. In 2025, a possible increase in tariffs on palm oil in Europe could increase demand for rapeseed and sunflower oils.
4.2. Quality and environmental standards
The European Union is implementing increasingly stringent standards for the sustainable production of vegetable oils, which could affect the price and availability of products that meet these criteria.
- Technology
5.1. Innovations in agriculture
Modern farming techniques, such as biotech oilseed varieties with higher drought and pest resistance, can reduce the risk of crop failure. Automation and precision farming will allow for more efficient management of resources.
5.2. Progress in processing
New refining methods, such as enzymatic purification of oils, can improve their quality and health properties by eliminating unfavorable substances (such as harmful trans fats).
5.3. Biofuels
The rapid growth of the biofuel market, especially biodiesel, is driving demand for vegetable oils. EU regulations promoting second-generation biofuels could affect feedstock allocation and cooking oil prices.
Summary
The market for refined vegetable oils, including sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, will remain strongly influenced by a number of macroeconomic, geopolitical and technological factors in 2025. The events of recent years, including the war in Ukraine, climate change and increasing regulatory requirements, have already significantly changed the structure of the sector, and the months ahead will bring further evolution and new challenges.
One of the key factors shaping the market is the geopolitical situation. The conflict in Ukraine has led to major disruptions in sunflower oil supplies, forcing importers to diversify their sources of supply. In 2025, the situation remains unstable, which means that markets may continue to struggle with limited raw material availability and high prices. Additional factors affecting vegetable oil trade are trade tensions between global economies, such as the US and China, as well as possible economic sanctions imposed on key commodity exporters.
Weather conditions play an equally important role, affecting oilseed crop yields. An increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, floods and heat waves, can lead to significant fluctuations in oil supply. In addition, El Niño and La Niña cycles may affect crop conditions in key producing regions, which will directly affect prices and availability of raw materials on the international market.
At the same time, changes in demand and supply are an important determinant of the sector’s development. Increasing consumer awareness of healthy foods and the rise in popularity of plant-based diets are leading to growing interest in oils with favorable fatty acid profiles, such as canola oil and sunflower oil. On the other hand, a growing population and economic development in developing countries are contributing to increased demand for vegetable oils in the food and biofuel industries.
The trade policies of individual countries are not insignificant. Customs regulations, taxes and quality standards can both stimulate and restrict international trade in vegetable oils. An example is the European Union’s regulations on sustainable production of vegetable oils, which can affect the competitiveness of individual suppliers. Further tightening of environmental regulations can be expected in 2025, which could change the structure of imports and exports in Europe and other parts of the world.
The role of technology, which will be a key element in improving the efficiency of vegetable oil production and processing in the coming years, cannot be overlooked either. The development of agricultural technologies, including climate-resilient varieties, precision farming and automation of cultivation and harvesting processes, can increase yields and reduce the risk of losses. Modern methods of oil refining and extraction can improve the quality of final products and their usefulness in both the food and biofuel industries.
In this dynamic environment, MBF Group SA remains one of the key suppliers of refined and unrefined vegetable oils from Eastern Europe and Asia, including Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. With long-term business relationships, an extensive logistics network and market knowledge, the company is able to supply high-quality raw materials at competitive prices, ensuring stability of supply in the face of global challenges.